By Mariam Karouny
The downfall of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi is likely to
pave the way for increased Western attention to Syria and embolden protests against
President Bashar al-Assad.
The implosion of Gaddafi's
rule after six months of civil war in which the rebels benefited from sanctions
on Gaddafi, a no-fly zone and NATO air strikes may have implications for Syri's
six-month-old revolt and Assad's efforts to crush it.
"The international
community will now think that its strong intervention in the struggle (in
Syria) will resolve the situation," said opposition figure Louay Hussein.
"Libya has raised the
morale of the West and it will have a bigger excuse to intervene. But we reject
any military action in Syria."
Hussein and other opposition
activists said however the events in Tripoli would revive Syrian protesters'
hopes.
"What happened in Libya
means a lot for us, it means that the Arab spring is coming without doubt ...
there is no solution to any problem without the will of the people," said
Michel Kilo, a prominent opposition figure.
No country has proposed the
kind of action in Syria which NATO forces have carried out in Libya. But the
West has called on Assad to step down and Washington has imposed new sanctions
over his crackdown, in which the United Nations says 2,200 civilians have died.
Syria has an alliance with Iran and a key role in Lebanon, despite
ending a 29-year military presence there in 2005. It also has influence in Iraq
and supports militant groups Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah.
ASSAD DEFIANT
Assad on Sunday said Syria
would not bow to external pressure, which he said could only affect "a
president made in the United States and a subservient people who get their
orders from outside."
"As for the threat of a
military action ... any action against Syria will have greater consequences (on
those who carry it out), greater than they can tolerate," he said.
Assad has responded to the
unrest with a mixture of reforms and force. He granted citizenship to hundreds
of thousands of ethnic Kurds, ended a state of emergency and promised to let
groups other than his Baath party run in elections.
Analysts and opposition
figures said they expected the situation in Syria to deteriorate further, with
authorities intensifying the crackdown and protesters not backing down.
"After what happened in
Libya I think he (Assad) will be tougher with the security option he is
taking," Boumonsef said.
"He sees what (he calls)
the international conspiracy on him will be stronger and now that Gaddafi is
out of the way it will move toward him in full strength ... This is
imminent."
Some opposition figures
expressed fears that Libya's endgame might encourage voices among the
opposition calling for the arming of a hitherto largely peaceful movement in
Syria.
"I fear that some in the
opposition who are in a hurry to end the regime, who we have always warned
against repeating the Libyan example, will say now it has been successful and
resort to arms," said Hussein, who was detained during the uprising.
"But we will resist such
proposals, regardless of where they are coming from."
OPPOSITION DIVIDED
The anti-Assad movement is fragmented.
"Despite everything that is happening, the opposition remains stuck over
little issues like personal issues between its leaders," Kilo said.
Boumonsef said it would try
harder, with international help, to unify.
"The opposition will be
motivated more. There is no return and (Assad's) reforms will not stop
anything. It is too late."
Encouraged after Western
leaders called on Assad to step down, Syrian opposition figures are holding
talks in Istanbul to nominate a broad-based council that could aid in a
transition of power if Assad is toppled.
Unlike previous opposition
conferences, which were marked by divisions between Islamists and liberals,
participants said there was broad agreement on 120 nominees for the council
from inside and outside Syria.
The council would speak for
dissidents in exile and activists on the ground, opposition figures told
Reuters.
But some poured cold water on
the idea. "There is no interest inside Syria in a conference happening
outside because the public opinion and those inside Syria believe that what is
happening outside is marginal," Kilo said.
"We do not need a
transitional council ... the real challenge is not what should be done after
the regime collapses but for us it is what should be done every day so that we
remain standing."
(Reporting by Mariam Karouny;
editing by Andrew Roche)
Source : Reuters
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