By Mark Hosenball and Laura MacInnis
Now that he has called for Syria's leader to leave,
President Barack Obama faces the daunting challenge of smoothing the way to a
post-Assad era -- just as another Arab strongman looks increasingly beleaguered
in Libya.
The twin crises appear to
offer opportunities for U.S. foreign policy -- Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
is an ally of Iran,
foe of Israel and sponsor of the armed militant group Hezbollah, while Libyan
leader Muammar Gaddafi has vexed U.S. officials for decades.
But they also bring grave
risks at a time when Obama is focused on domestic affairs.
Between them, Assad and his late
father have ruled Syria with iron fists for 41 years. U.S. and
European officials privately concede that civil and political chaos in Syria
might be the most likely result if Assad abruptly leaves power.
Syria's political opposition
is even more disorganized and fragmented than Libyan rebels who now appear to
be closing in on Gaddafi's stronghold in Tripoli.
After weeks of resisting,
Obama, backed by the European Union, called on Thursday for Assad to go during
the same week that Gaddafi's position in Libya appeared to erode, as rebels
seized the key western city of Zawiyeh.
With a war-weary U.S. public
and tight budgets, the White House has made clear it has no plans to put troops
on the ground in Libya or Syria, either to topple their leaders or engage in
"nation-building" should they depart.
"The same concerns that
apparently constrained the administration from calling for Assad's ouster
persist today: how do we force Assad out? Does the fall of the Alawite regime
result in sectarian chaos? And what comes after this regime amid potential
Islamist extremism?" said Juan Zarate, a White House counterterrorism
adviser to former President George W. Bush.
Assad and much of his ruling
circle are members of the minority Alawite sect, which makes up about 12
percent of Syria's population.
"The calculus to call for
Assad's ouster has come too late, and it's now time to find ways with our
partners to shape the coming days in Damascus," Zarate said.
The Syrian opposition, which
ranges from secular reformers to Islamists in the Muslim Brotherhood, has made
halting steps at unity.
On Friday, more than 40
"revolution blocs" announced they had forged a coalition to unite
their efforts to overthrow Assad, according to news reports.
"The opposition, on its
own and without international involvement, has made significant strides over
the past several months to unify," a senior U.S. official said this week.
"We can't predict how
long this transition will take. Nothing about it will be easy. But we're
certain that Assad is on the way out," said the official, speaking on
condition of anonymity.
STRUGGLE MAY DRAG ON
Former CIA Deputy Director
John McLaughlin predicted the struggle in Syria would go on for some time
"because of Bashar's limited incentive to cry 'uncle,'" but would
result ultimately in Assad's demise.
That might be followed by a
weak, Sunni-dominated government and McLaughlin said such an outcome would
itself present many challenges.
He said it would
"transform Syria into a political battleground between competing regional
players, mainly Shiite Iran -- which will be losing its closest ally and the
avenue through which it supplies its Hezbollah proxy in Lebanon -- and Saudi Arabia, which will
see an opportunity to checkmate Iran's regional influence by aiding Syria's
Sunni majority.
"Just the usual simple
Middle East equation -- actually what is already three-dimensional chess will
become more like a mosh pit."
It is unclear how much
planning the Obama administration has done for a post-Assad Syria. Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton met publicly for the first time this month with Syrian
activists.
But in Libya, a rapid
succession of rebel victories has accelerated Western postwar planning, even as
officials discounted intelligence reports suggesting Gaddafi's departure was
imminent.
The NATO alliance on Friday
authorized formal planning for post-Gaddafi Libya. Next week, rebels of the
Transitional National Council will meet in Dubai with officials from the United
States, Britain,Jordan, United Arab
Emirates and perhaps others, "all devoted to the day-after planning,"
an Obama administration official told Reuters.
The working idea is that the
UAE, Jordan and Qatar would put together "a bridging force" of 1,000
to 2,000 personnel to be deployed in Libya just after Gaddafi goes, the
official said.
White House officials are
concerned that unless transition plans are firmed up now, post-Gaddafi Libya
may be chaotic and it may be impossible to fulfill the West's promise to
protect Libya's population from a humanitarian crisis.
Some U.S. and European
officials say that despite its better organization and purported recent
advances, Libya's opposition movement is not ready to govern.
The optimistic scenario U.S.
and European officials hope will develop in Libya is that Gaddafi will decide
to go fairly soon but enough of his government and forces will remain intact to
enable the formation of a transitional government that can maintain a measure of
civil order.
(Additional reporting by Andrew Quinn, Arshad
Mohammed and Susan
Cornwell; Editing by Warren Strobel and Peter Cooney)
Source : Reuters
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