By Michael Georgy
Libyan rebel Husam Najjair seems more concerned about the
possibility of rebels turning on each other when they try to take control of
the capital Tripoli than the threat posed by forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi.
"The first thing my
brigade will do is set up checkpoints to disarm everyone, including other rebel
groups, because otherwise it will be a bloodbath," said Najjair.
"All
the rebel groups will want to control Tripoli. Order will be needed."
His comments pointed to the
biggest question that will be asked as the endgame appears to be nearing in
Libya -- is there one unifying figure who can lead Libya if the rebels take
over?
Right now the resounding
answer seems to be no.
"There isn't one rebel
leader who is respected by everyone. That's the problem," said Kamran
Bokhari, Middle East Director at STRATFOR global intelligence firm.
Gaddafi ran the North African
oil producing-country like a cult, without state institutions that would make
any transition easier for the rebels, who have plenty of spirit but lack a
proper chain of command.
They are also weighed down by
factionalism and ethnic and tribal divisions.
The most prominent rebel
leader is Mustafa Abdel Jalil, chairman of the National Transitional Council
(NTC), a disparate group of Gaddafi opponents based in the eastern city of
Benghazi.
It consists of former
government ministers and longstanding opposition members who represent
wide-ranging views including Arab nationalism, Islamists, secularists,
socialists and businessmen.
A former justice minister, the
soft-spoken Abdel Jalil was described as a "fair-minded technocrat"
in a U.S. diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks.
A mild-mannered consensus
builder in his late 50s, he was praised by Human Rights Watch for his work on
Libya's criminal code reform. Abdel Jalil resigned as justice minister in
February when violence was used against protestors.
But like other former members
of Gaddafi's inner circle, he will always be viewed with suspicion by some
rebels who want completely new faces with no past links to the regime running
the country.
The prime minister of the
rebels' shadow government, Mahmoud Jibril, a former top development official
under Gaddafi, has extensive foreign contacts and has been the rebels' roving
envoy.
But his travels have
frustrated some colleagues and foreign backers so his experience and contact
building will have been wasted if he is not part of any new administration.
Another prominent rebel who
may play a future leadership role is Ali Tarhouni. THe U.S.-based academic and
opposition figure in exile returned to Libya to take charge of economic,
financial and oil matters for the rebels.
IRAQ LESSONS
Tensions between life-long
opponents of Gaddafi and his supporters who recently defected to the rebel side
may undermine efforts to choose an effective leadership.
If hardliners prevail, Libya
could make the same mistake that analysts say was made in Iraq after the 2003
U.S. invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.
His Baath Party supporters and
army officers were purged en masse, creating a power vacuum that led to instability
for years as everyone from his secular backers to al Qaeda waged a violent
campaign against Iraq's new U.S.-backed rulers.
"You cannot make a rule
that anyone who worked for Gaddafi cannot work with us. It's not practical at
all," said Ashour Shamis, a United Kingdom-based Libyan opposition
activist.
Such an approach would
undermine efforts to bring back capable people to undertake perhaps the most
critical task of all -- revitalizing the oil industry.
Those who want to put aside
animosities for the sake of rebuilding the country's energy sector may want to
turn to its former top official Shokri Ghanem for help.
The Western-educated Ghanem,
who defected, has decades of experience in the oil sector and is a former prime
minister credited with liberalizing the Libyan economy and accelerating the opening of the
country to global petroleum investment.
Bringing people like Ghanem
back will depend to a great extent on whether rebels will be willing to put
aside their differences and take a practical view of Libya's future.
FRACTIONALISM
Judging by realities on the
ground, it won't be easy.
Take the Western Mountains
region, where rebels recently made the most dramatic gains in months.
The fighters showed far more
discipline as they swept through towns and villages in the plains and
eventually reached Zawiyah, about a 30 minute drive from Tripoli.
Beneath the surface, the
rebels were torn apart by divisions and factionalism. Berber and Arab villages
look at each other with disdain.
Rebels refer to themselves as
the fighters from village x or village y, not the rebels of Libya. When
journalists want to reach frontlines, they are told to get written permission
from whichever rebel is in charge of a specific area.
Najjair, an Irish-Libyan who
left behind his life as a building contractor to take up arms against Gaddafi,
constantly went on about how his Tripoli Brigade was the best-suited to seize
the capital because its members were all from Tripoli.
"We are the most
organized. But we get the least help from the other rebel groups," was his
constant complaint.
As the rebels close in on
Tripoli, the common cause of fighting Gaddafi could ease divisions.
A hint of what could be in
store is the still unexplained July 28 killing of the rebels' military
commander, Abdel Fattah Younes, a former top Gaddafi security official, after
he was taken into custody by his own side for questioning.
The killing has raised fears
that the NTC is too weak and fractured to halt a slide into bloodshed as rival
factions, including Islamists, bid for power.
An increasing number of
fighters in the Western Mountains, for instance, are growing long, thick
beards, the trademark of Islamists who are likely to reject close ties with the
West in a new Libya, while others cry out for foreign investment.
They may also argue that the
rebels from the Western Mountains and the city of Misrata should be given the
most powerful positions in any new government since they did most of the
fighting while the ones in Benghazi dealt with administration.
The bitterness was palpable on
the frontlines along the desert plains in the West, even though different rebel
groups took part in the advance.
The rebels from Benghazi were
portrayed as outsiders who were often late in delivering weapons and other
supplies to their counterparts.
Rebels in the leadership
structure will have to figure out ways to defuse tensions among their ranks
while trying to run Libya.
"Talking over Tripoli
will be very complex and trying. Just organizing the feeding of the rebels and
getting supplies in will be tough, especially since Gaddafi's people have been
busy digging trenches to prepare," said Bokhari.
"But running the country
will be much tougher for the rebels. Finding people who everyone accepts will
be the challenge."
(Additional reporting by William
Maclean in London and Christian
Lowe in Algiers;
editing by Maria
Golovnina)
(Reporting By Maria
Golovnina)
Source : Reuters
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