The Palestinians' initiative to seek U.N. recognition as a
state, which goes to the Security Council on Monday, faces an uphill struggle
to secure the nine votes needed for approval.
Without those votes in the
15-member body, the United States will be spared the embarrassment of having to
veto the application, which would be a further blow to its floundering efforts
to secure Middle East peace.
As the formal discussions
start, diplomats say the Palestinians have only six certain votes on the
council -- China, Russia, Brazil,
Lebanon, India and South Africa.
Those nations, except Lebanon,
make up the BRICS bloc of emerging powers whose economic and diplomatic clout
has grown as trade becomes more globalized and the United States and Europe
fight prospects of another recession.
But diplomats say the BRICS
countries seem to have made no attempt to use their considerable weight, often
on show in financial and trade matters, to force the Palestinian issue. They
have essentially taken the same approach as always.
"If a vote was held
today, the Palestinians wouldn't have enough votes to carry the day and the
Americans wouldn't even need to use their veto," a Western diplomat told
Reuters.
The Palestinian observer to
the United Nations, Riyad Mansour, told reporters nine council members are
among the 131 U.N. member states that have recognized the state of Palestine
and he hoped that they would "vote positively."
But he acknowledged that
council members will face "tremendous pressure" in the coming weeks
to vote against the Palestinian U.N. bid.
Still, diplomats say
Washington remains isolated on the council because of its staunch support for
Israel, which the majority of U.N. member states believe has worked hard to
sabotage peace talks with the Palestinians.
In February, Washington vetoed
what was widely seen as an anodyne resolution condemning Israeli settlement
activity, even though its language was largely consistent with statements of
the Obama administration, which has urged the Israelis to resume a moratorium
on new settlements.
When Israel ended the
moratorium a year ago, the Palestinians withdrew from moribund peace talks.
ISOLATION
Highlighting its isolation on
the Security Council, Washington cast the sole vote against the settlements
resolution. The other 14 members -- including Washington's European allies such
as Britain and France -- opposed the United States and
Israel and voted for the resolution.
The Europeans agree with
Washington that the Palestinian U.N. bid is unwise and are inclined to oppose
it. But the Europeans and Americans are far apart on the Middle East issue and
diplomats say Washington remains as isolated as ever.
Palestinian President Mahmoud
Abbas set the clock ticking on Friday when he delivered a U.N. membership
application for a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The
capital would be East Jerusalem, land Israel captured in the 1967 war that it
launched out of fear Arabs were poised to attack.
The council will take up the
Palestinian membership application on Monday in closed-door consultations, but
no immediate action is expected, diplomats say.
Normally the council would
take no more than 35 days to review and assess a membership application. In
July, the application of South Sudan, the 193rd U.N. member and the most recent
country to join the world body, was approved in a matter of days and given to
the General Assembly, which confirmed it.
Western diplomats on the
Security Council say that will not be the case with the Palestinian
application. The United States and Israel vehemently oppose the move and say it
can only undermine efforts to relaunch stalled peace talks.
The 35-day limit can easily be
waived, Western diplomats say. Slowing down the process, they say, would be
helpful as it would buy time for the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations -- the
"Quartet" -- to put pressure on both sides to get back to the
negotiating table.
But Abbas told reporters
during the trip back to Ramallah that he expected the council to make a
decision in "weeks not months."
Palestinian Foreign Minister
Riyad al-Malki has acknowledged his delegation lacks sufficient support at the
moment to get a resolution on Palestinian statehood and U.N. membership through
the council.
To pass, resolutions need nine
votes in favor and no vetoes from the five permanent council members --
Britain, China,
France, Russia and the United States.
"We're working toward it
(securing nine votes) and I think we'll manage it," Malki said.
Malki has named Gabon, Nigeria
and Bosnia as key rotating council members he hopes to win over to the
Palestinians' side. During last week's U.N. General Assembly session, the three
"swing states" did not divulge whether they would vote in favor of
Palestinian U.N. membership.
Gabon President Ali Bongo told
the assembly he supported the existence of a Palestinian state that "lives
peacefully side by side" with Israel. Bosnian President Zeljko Komsic
voiced similar views. Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan did not mention the
Palestinians in his speech.
Mansour said the Palestinians
would be sending high-level delegations to Bosnia, Gabon and Nigeria in the
coming weeks.
Portugal's prime minister,
Pedro Passos Coelho, whose country is also on the council, indicated Lisbon
would favor an option whereby the Palestinians would apply to the General Assembly
for upgraded U.N. observer state status -- less than full membership but
indirect recognition of statehood.
(Editing by John
O'Callaghan and Cynthia
Osterman)
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Source : Reuters
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