China's faster-than-expected military buildup has alarmed the
United States and its Asian allies and could help the Pentagon gird against
deeper defense cuts threatened in some corners of Congress.
But even though the
sophistication of China's People's Liberation Army has exceeded U.S. military
forecasts, there is a recognition within the Pentagon that some of its
most-cited conventional capabilities are still in their infancy.
China's first aircraft
carrier, a refurbished Soviet-era vessel known as the Varyag bought from the
Ukraine, began sea trials in July. Chinese sources said Beijing is also
building two indigenous carriers, a claim the U.S. military believes is
misleading at best.
Admiral Robert Willard,
commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, told Reuters that while China might be pursuing procurement or some
other embryonic action on an indigenous carrier, it would be premature to say
"a keel is laid."
"The only ship that
anyone has seen and that they have discussed with any level of fidelity is the
Varyag, this particular ship that has floated," Willard said in an
interview.
But the refurbished Soviet-era
carrier is not yet fully operational. China, the last permanent member of the
U.N. Security Council to get carrier capability, will not be able to
effectively field an aircraft carrier with any combat aircraft aboard for
years, according to Pentagon estimates.
A Pentagon assessment to
Congress noted Brazil's navy offered to provide China training in carrier
operations.
"However, Brazil's
limited capabilities in this area and the extensive problems with Brazil's own
carrier program raise some questions as to the implications of the offer,"
it said.
NOT TEN FEET TALL
Then there is question of
China's stealth fighter jet, the J-20, which did its first test flight during a
visit by the U.S. defense secretary to China in January.
Despite the attention given
to the J-20, the Pentagon does not expect it to achieve an effective
operational capability before 2018.
There are also questions
about how effective its stealth capability may be. The J-20's test flight
proved its stealth design but did not reveal other attributes to help it avoid
detection that might come later, sources say.
"China faces several
hurdles as it moves toward J-20 production, including the mastery of high
performance jet engine production," the Pentagon report said.
The United States has had a
proper stealth fighter since Lockheed Martin's F-117 Nighthawk made its first
flight 30 years ago. That aircraft was retired from service in 2007.
Prior
"low-observable" U.S. aircraft date back to the 1950s with the U-2A
high-altitude reconnaissance plane.
The PLA is also still some
way from mastering the ability to mount large joint force operations, which
will be needed to make the most of newfound capabilities grabbing headlines.
The U.S. military has spent
the past decade of war honing joint operations that weave together teams and
skills from across its armed forces -- a hard-won but potent tool.
The U.S. Navy's top
intelligence officer warned before retiring earlier this year against
overestimating Chinese military capabilities.
"I don't view them as 10
feet tall," Vice Admiral David Dorsett said. "Have we seen large
joint sophisticated exercises? No ... They are at the front end of developing
their military capability."
IS CHINA "ON THE
MARCH"?
At the same time, the U.S.
military believes China appears on track to field a modern, regionally focused
military by 2020. A comprehensive strategy to maintain the U.S. edge in the
Pacific will require investment, a tough challenge in an era of budget cuts.
The Pentagon now counts a base
budget, excluding war costs, of over half a trillion dollars. China downplays
its defense spending but acknowledged in March a 12.7 percent rise in 2011
defense outlays to 600 billion yuan ($94 billion).
Still, the U.S. military,
while expressing confidence in future funding for the Asia-Pacific region, is
not parroting some of the more volatile China rhetoric seen in parts of
Congress.
"I know some folks like
to sugarcoat the terms in describing China as a rival or competitor but the
fact is Communist China is an enemy of democracy," David Rivera, a
lawmaker on the House of Representatives Foreign Relations Committee, said in a
recent hearing on Taiwan.
The U.S. military's estimates
of China offer a more mixed view. This year's assessment noted China's lack of
operational experience and large amounts of antiquated hardware but said the
PLA was "steadily closing the technological gap with modern armed
forces."
Dean Cheng, a China expert at
the Heritage Foundation think-tank in Washington, said future Chinese advances
like improvements in its anti-ship ballistic missile would influence U.S. risk
assessments when deploying near its shores.
That is not to say China will
be able to flat-out deny U.S. access to nearby waters any time soon.
"Denial is a function of
risk -- what level of risk are we willing to accept in order to do whatever it
is we're going to do out there," Cheng said, noting U.S. submarines, for
example, can be very difficult to detect.
The PLA's aggressive posture
in the South China Sea and its increasing military edge over Taiwan are sources
of concern -- as are its investments in nuclear submarines, which suggest China
is seeking to support operations well beyond Taiwan.
Those concerns have found
fertile ground in Congress, where the chairman of the House Intelligence
Committee accused China of widespread cyber espionage.
Some lawmakers have reacted
angrily to the U.S. decision to give Taiwan a $5.85 billion arms package
including upgrades to F-16 A/B fighter aircraft, instead of also delivering the
late-model F-16 C/D fighters that Taipei wanted.
"China is on the march
in Asia, and its primary target remains democratic Taiwan," said the House
Foreign Relations Committee's chairwoman, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.
China sees Taiwan, a
self-ruled island, as an illegitimate breakaway from Beijing's rule that must
accept eventual reunification. The United States switched diplomatic ties from
Taiwan to mainland China in 1979 but it is obligated by law to supply Taiwan
sufficient arms for self-defense.
As China's regional military
ambitions come into view, so does discussion of its global goals. But Dorsett
noted China's global aspirations are longer term, seeking to turn its navy into
a global power "by the middle years of this century."
"That's their
timeline," said. "Should we expect them to be much more competent 10
years from now than they are today? As long as their economy's robust,
absolutely."
(Editing by John
O'Callaghan)
Source : Reuters
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