As the dust settles after six months of fighting in Libya,
U.S. officials are stepping up efforts to identify Islamic militants who might
pose a threat in a post-Gaddafi power vacuum.
U.S. counterterrorism and
intelligence agencies have recently produced classified papers examining the
strength, role and activities of militant activists and factions in
post-Gaddafi Libya, four U.S. officials said. Some assessments examine the
backgrounds of anti-Gaddafi leaders with militant pedigrees, and explore
whether these individuals, some of whom have publicly renounced Islamic
militancy, will stand by their pledges against extremism.
During the half-year campaign
by rebels to drive Muammar Gaddafi from power, U.S. and NATO officials
downplayed fears that al Qaeda or other militants would infiltrate anti-Gaddafi
forces or take advantage of disorder to establish footholds in Libya.
Since then, however, the
assessment of top experts inside the U.S. government has sharpened.
"It's of concern that
terrorists are going to take advantage of instability" in post-Gaddafi
Libya, said a U.S. official who monitors the issue closely.
"There is a potential
problem," said another U.S. official, who said both the U.S. government
and Libya's National Transitional Council were watching closely. Experts around
the U.S. intelligence community "are paying attention to this," a
third U.S. official said.
Officials said that while the
rebellion against Gaddafi continued, it was difficult to collect intelligence
on the rebels. But now that Gaddafi's regime has dissolved, U.S. and allied
agencies are taking a closer look.
Bruce Riedel, a former senior
CIA analyst who has advised President Barack Obama on policy in the region,
said there was particular worry that Islamic militants could use Libya as a
base to spread their influence into neighboring countries such as Algeria or
areas such as the Sinai peninsula, where Israel, Egypt and the Gaza Strip share
borders.
"There is a great deal of concern that the jihadi cadre now
are going to be exporting their ideas and weapons toward the east and
west," Riedel said.
Riedel and current U.S.
officials said one high-priority issue is whether militants can acquire, or
have obtained, weapons from Gaddafi's huge arsenals, especially surface-to-air
missiles that could be used against commercial airliners.
POWER VACUUM
Another key issue is trying
to figure out what militant individuals or factions are presently in Libya. At
the moment, two officials said, U.S. and NATO experts assess that a "power
vacuum" exists while the shaky transitional council tries to organize
itself and set up a new government.
In late August, the Open
Source Center, a U.S. intelligence unit that monitors public media including
militant websites, reported that "in recent days, jihadists have been
strategizing on extremist web forums how to establish an Islamic state" in
the post-Gaddafi era.
"Many forum members,
describing the fall of Tripoli as the initial phase of the battle for Libya,
have urged Libyan mujahideen to prepare for the next stage of battle against
the (National Transitional Council) and secularist rebels to establish an
Islamic state," the center said.
U.S. officials said militant
groups have a history of taking advantage of power vacuums to consolidate and
expand. The United States and its allies want to avoid a replay of what
happened when Afghanistan was governed, patchily, by the Taliban
and al Qaeda was able to establish elaborate, semi-permanent training camps.
Another worry is figures with
a militant background getting into the higher echelons of the new Libyan
government. One new Libyan leader under close scrutiny is Abdel Hakim Belhadj,
a former Islamic fighter in Libya and Afghanistan who now commands post-Gaddafi
forces in Tripoli.
After allegedly forging ties
in Afghanistan with the Taliban and al Qaeda in the wake of the September 11,
2001, attacks, Belhadj reportedly was arrested with his wife by the CIA in
Bangkok and later extradited to Libya, where he was imprisoned until 2010. He
was released under a reconciliation plan promoted by Gaddafi son Saif al Islam.
In an interview this month
with the Al Jazeera website, Belhadj said he was subjected to "barbaric
treatment" while in CIA custody and later to "many types of physical
and mental torture" in Gaddafi's notorious Abu Salim prison.
Asked about his dealings with
al Qaeda, Belhadj said, "We have never been in a relationship with them or
joined them in any kind of activity because we could never come to an
understanding of (philosophies)."
"Libyans are generally
moderate Muslims, with moderate ways of practice and understanding of religion.
You can find some extreme elements that are different from the mainstream, but
this does not in any way represent the majority of the Libyan people."
Secret British intelligence
files recovered by anti-Gaddafi forces from the offices of Gaddafi's advisers
show that the British kept a close watch on suspected militants in Britain who
they believed were linked to the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, the main
anti-Gaddafi Islamic militant network.
The documents, obtained by
Reuters, show that during a February 2005 visit to Libya, British intelligence
expressed concern the LIFG might be becoming more militant because some al
Qaeda links were emerging. But in a 2008 visit, British officials reported that
some UK-based Libyan militants had qualms about closer ties to al Qaeda.
A person familiar with British
government investigations of militants said U.K. authorities believe that LIFG,
as a group, abandoned violence in 2009, although individual Libyan militants
remained active in al Qaeda's central core.
Some U.S. and British experts
said today's militants may have no connection with vintage LIFG fighters. They
fear that young militants who fought against Gaddafi will be angered if Libya's
new government is seen as too close to the West.
(Additional reporting by
William MacLean; Editing by Warren
Strobel and Doina Chiacu)
Source : Reuters
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