Vladimir Putin visits China on Tuesday in his first foreign trip
since revealing plans to reclaim Russia's presidency, addressing a challenging
relationship with a giant neighbor whose growth is both an opportunity and a
potential threat for Moscow.
For Putin, whose main focus
has been domestic in nearly four years as prime minister, the trip sets in
motion a return to forefront of Russian foreign policy ahead of a March
election in which he is expected to win a six-year term as president.
Beneath talk of strategic
relations and shared stances on world affairs, wrangling over a gas pact worth
a potential $1 trillion points up the tough issues he will confront in dealing
with Russia's far more populous, faster growing neighbor.
China, facing its own
leadership transition next year, may try to gauge Putin's plans for what could
be 12 years at the helm of a country whose natural resources and nuclear arms
make it a factor in Beijing's economic and geopolitical strategies.
"The significance of this
trip exceeds that of a normal prime minister-level visit," said Zhao
Huasheng, director at the Center for Russia and Central Asia Studies at Shanghai's
Fudan University.
Putin will bring an army of
executives including the CEOs of state-controlled energy firms Gazprom and
Rosneft and aluminum producer UC RUSAL, all eager to exchange their wares for
Chinese cash.
His meetings with Chinese
President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao will feature warm
affirmations of friendship and solidarity on big global issues between two
countries that often move in lockstep to counter the United States and Europe.
VETO
Their double veto last week of
a European-drafted, U.S.-backed U.N. Security Council resolution to condemn Syria's
crackdown on pro-democracy protesters was a warning against Western meddling in
their own countries and others worldwide.
Putin may use the trip to show
the West an emphasis on China as Russia's geopolitical partner and a customer
for its energy.
He did just that in a
televised meeting with Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller on October 3, pointedly
ordering him to prepare proposals on expansion into Asian markets,
seen as a way to diversify Russian energy exports away from stagnant Europe.
President Dmitry Medvedev has
not been cool to China since Putin steered him into the Kremlin after his own
2000-2008 presidency, but his emphasis has been on presenting a friendlier face
to the West and improving ties with the United States.
Putin's meeting with Miller
followed European Commission raids on offices of Gazprom subsidiaries in Europe
that underscored persistent tensions over the continent's heavy reliance on
Russian gas, which EU members want to reduce.
But China's friendly
political ties with Russia, and their partnership in the loose BRIC grouping
that also includes India and Brazil,
do not make Beijing less of a tough customer when it comes to energy deals.
GAS DEAL
Putin will likely seek to
resolve the price disagreements that have prevented Russia nailing down a
30-year deal to supply China with up to 68 billion
cubic meters of gas per year.
But Gazprom's export chief
told Reuters last month that the five-year-old negotiations might not end this
year, pushing back initial deliveries beyond the latest target of 2016.
Meanwhile, China is
cultivating other sources of energy supplies, particularly in ex-Soviet Central
Asia.
A report this month by the
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said China was gaining
the upper hand in the relationship as it becomes less reliant on Russia for
advanced weapons and looks elsewhere for some of its energy.
It said Russia's significance
to China would continue to diminish in the coming years, and that "there
are strategic planners in Beijing and Moscow who view the other side as the
ultimate strategic threat in the long term.
While Putin may use China as a
foil against the West, the pragmatic former KGB officer is well aware of such
concerns.
As he prepares for what could
be two six-year terms as president, "the risks from China's growth will be
watched more closely than the opportunities," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor
of the journal Russia in Global Affairs.
At an investor conference on
Thursday, Putin used a joke to play down the challenge posed by China's faster
growth after TPG Capital co-founder David Bonderman outlined China's path to
becoming the world's largest economy.
"He got me worried. He
said that the United States is so far the world's biggest economy but China
will undoubtedly take over. So we now need to keep our foreign currency reserves in yuan while the Chinese
will keep them in dollars," Putin said.
"That will be an
interesting Russian doll."
(Additional reporting by
Michael Martina in Beijing; Editing by Steve Gutterman and Kevin Liffey)
Source : Reuters
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